Dryness dynamics of the Baltic Sea region

Egidijus Rimkus, Donatas Valiukas, Justas Kažys, Indrė Gečaitė, Edvinas Stonevičius

 

Abstract

The dynamics in dryness over the Baltic Sea region during the observation period of 1960–2009, as well as the climate prediction for the 21st century have been evaluated in this research. The dryness of the investigated area has been examined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation amount data provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia have been used in this study. Projections of future dryness changes are based on the output data of the regional CCLM model driven by A1B and B1 emission scenarios. The increase of SPI values, i.e. a decline in dryness, have been found over the last fifty years in the major part of the investigated area. However, the probability of short-term droughts remain high against the background of a general decrease in dryness. The increased dryness during the analyzed period has been found only in the southern part of the Baltic Sea region. Similar changes are also foreseen for the 21st century. The dryness is expected to increase in the south (especially in summer), while the central and northern parts of the region are likely to witness the recurrence of a drought decrease. 

Keywords: Droughts; Standardized Precipitation Index; Precipitation; CCLM; Baltic Sea region

DOI: 10.5200/baltica.2012.25.13

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